Europe's cannabis sector has stopped creeping and started moving. Prohibition Partners' latest report on the continent puts hard numbers behind what growers, patients and producers have been feeling for two years: regulatory reform, patient demand and cross-border exports are redrawing the map. We've already looked at the market and the external factors shaping it. The figures follow.
The wider picture: three forces driving the continent
Three engines are powering European growth at once, and that's what makes this cycle different from previous false starts. The first is legal reform. Germany's rescheduling of medical cannabis and its CanG adult-use framework have shown that a G7 economy can move quickly without the sky falling in. The second is patient demand, unlocked largely by telehealth platforms that removed the friction of finding a willing prescriber. The third is supply: a maturing production belt running through Portugal, Denmark and the Czech Republic, feeding the big consumer markets at falling prices.
The result is a market that behaves less like a regulatory experiment and more like an agricultural commodity sector. Volumes are rising, prices are falling, margins are compressing and competition is sharpening. Familiar territory for anyone who has watched another crop industrialise.
Germany: regulatory reform sparks record growth
Germany is still Europe's largest medical cannabis market, valued at more than €670 million in 2025, with projections of €1.32 billion by 2029, roughly a doubling in four years.
Imports and domestic cultivation
Imports doubled in 2024 to 72,000 kilograms, with Canada, Portugal and Denmark leading supply. Domestically, the old restricted tender system, which capped German production at a token volume, has given way to an open licensing framework. Producers including Tilray/Aphria, Aurora and Demecan are already expanding capacity. Germany is shifting from a pure demand centre to a producer in its own right.
Prices and product mix
Competition has done what competition does. Average flower prices fell from €10.19 to €7.42 per gram in a single year, a 27% drop. Flower still accounts for 86% of products dispensed, but extracts, oils and other formats are slowly gaining ground as patients and pharmacists diversify.
The adult-use side
Under the Cannabis Control Bill (CanG), more than 230 cannabis cultivation associations are now active: the collective, non-commercial model Germany chose over open retail. 28 districts across 10 states have applied to run pilot retail projects designed to study what a properly regulated commercial market does to consumption, safety and the illicit trade.
"The combination of regulatory reform, telehealth infrastructure, and rising domestic and international supply is setting the benchmark for how quickly medical cannabis markets can scale," says Alex Khourdaji, senior analyst at Prohibition Partners.
United Kingdom: from niche to mainstream
The UK is now Europe's second-largest medical market, valued at over £258 million (€300 million) and forecast to reach £543 million (€630 million) by 2029.
Most of that growth runs through digital access. More than 30 telehealth platforms now serve UK patients, and patient numbers stand at 50,000 to 60,000, with forecasts of 80,000 treated patients by year-end. Domestic cultivation is scaling in parallel: Glass Pharms, Dalgety and Celadon are all expanding, with Glass Pharms alone set to produce 1,750 kilograms annually under a supply deal with Releaf Clinics.
Imports tell the same story. Volumes went from under 3 tonnes before 2022 to 15.5 tonnes in 2024, with more than 2 tonnes already landed by March 2025. Prices, however, have barely moved: flower slipped only from £7.47 to £7.05 per gram, which suggests a market where supply is still catching up with demand.
"As domestic cultivation scales and digital access becomes more embedded, the market is evolving rapidly from niche to mainstream, creating opportunity for global players and local pioneers alike," says Lawrence Purkiss, senior analyst at Prohibition Partners.
Poland, Denmark and the Czech Republic: the export corridor
Behind the headline markets sits the supply network that feeds them.
- Poland is now Europe's fourth-largest medical market, projected at €72 million in 2025, driven by telemedicine and a steady stream of new product approvals.
- Denmark exported more than 7 tonnes to Germany in 2024, after converting its pilot programme into a permanent framework.
- The Czech Republic shipped 1,300 kilograms to Germany in 2024 following cultivation reform, a small volume so far, but the direction is clear.
Portugal: Europe's cultivation hub
Portugal exported over 18 tonnes of medical cannabis in 2024, a 54% year-on-year increase. Germany took nearly half of those shipments, followed by Spain, Poland, the UK and Australia. Climate, labour costs and an established GMP-certified industrial base have made the country the continent's main growing site.
The irony is hard to miss. While Portugal supplies the continent, patient access at home remains tightly constrained by high costs, a strict approval system and the absence of public reimbursement, so the country produces for everyone and prescribes for almost no one.
Switzerland: pilots moving towards legalisation
Switzerland's adult-use pilots, launched in 2023, now involve more than 10,000 participants across seven projects. The findings so far are the ones reformers hoped for: no increase in consumption, better access to tested products and less reliance on illicit sources.
Sales across all pilots are expected to reach €23.7 million by the end of 2025. A draft bill for nationwide legalisation has already cleared committee level, with a final vote expected in 2026. That vote is what most of the industry is watching.
What it means for growers and the wider sector
Falling wholesale prices squeeze producers, but they also show the model working: cannabis is becoming a normal crop with normal economics. For patients, that means affordability. For cultivators, it means genetics, terpene profiles and consistency become the differentiators rather than scarcity. And in jurisdictions where home and hobby cultivation is permitted, the cultural shift matters as much as the legal one, because growing your own is steadily losing its stigma.
Volume alone won't carry anyone through. As Europe's supply base matures, the winners will be the operators, commercial or personal, who obsess over stable, well-documented, high-quality genetics.
Frequently asked questions
Which is Europe's largest cannabis market?
Germany, by a comfortable margin. Its medical market exceeded €670 million in 2025 and is forecast to reach €1.32 billion by 2029, supported by open cultivation licensing, doubled imports and a telehealth-driven prescribing ecosystem.
Why are cannabis flower prices falling in Germany but not in the UK?
Germany's supply has expanded faster than its demand, with 72,000 kg imported in 2024 plus growing domestic production, pushing prices from €10.19 to €7.42 per gram. The UK's domestic cultivation is still ramping up, so supply remains tighter and prices have only edged down from £7.47 to £7.05.
What is Germany's CanG and how does it differ from full legalisation?
CanG, the Cannabis Control Bill, permits limited personal possession and non-commercial cultivation associations rather than open commercial retail. More than 230 associations are active, and 28 districts have applied to trial regulated retail sales as a separate, evidence-gathering step.
Why does Portugal export so much cannabis?
Favourable climate, competitive production costs and an early, well-developed GMP-certified cultivation industry made Portugal Europe's production hub, with over 18 tonnes exported in 2024. Domestic patient access lags badly because of strict approvals, high out-of-pocket costs and no public reimbursement.
Are Switzerland's pilot trials leading to legalisation?
The evidence points that way. With over 10,000 participants, no observed rise in consumption and clear displacement of illicit purchasing, a draft bill for nationwide legalisation has passed committee level and faces a final vote in 2026.
How important is telehealth to Europe's medical cannabis growth?
Very. Over 30 platforms operate in the UK alone, and telemedicine underpins expansion in Germany and Poland by removing the geographic and specialist bottlenecks that previously limited prescriptions. Patient volume grew through digital access rather than through new products.
Which countries are emerging as Europe's key cannabis exporters?
Portugal leads by volume, followed by Denmark, which sent more than 7 tonnes to Germany in 2024, and the Czech Republic with 1,300 kg. Canada also remains a major external supplier to the German market.
What should growers take from these figures?
Normalisation is arriving faster than most predicted, and with it come commodity dynamics: falling prices, rising volumes and quality as the main differentiator. Whether you cultivate commercially or personally where it's legal, genetics and consistency are where the value now sits.
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